Armchair Analysis Extra: Three Possible Delay Reasons for Bioshock Infinite

The announcement of the Bioshock Infinite delay to late February of 2013 doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.

The original October 2012 release date seemed a bit risky, given the already-impressive lineup of software that is slated to ship near the same time. Assassin’s Creed III, Halo 4, Black Ops II, WiiU hardware, and other games would likely have eaten into potential sales for Bioshock Infinite. Would these other software releases have led to disappointing sales for Infinite? Possibly, but after a 2+ year hiatus for the IP, I think that Infinite would have held its own.

Let’s look at some potential causes for the delay.

1. Multiplayer addition:

Ken Levine notes in his explanation of the delay that Irrational Games had “uncovered opportunities to make Infinite into something even more extraordinary.” I firmly believe those “opportunities” are multiplayer options. Multiplayer has become fastened to almost every major game experience, and we even saw it with Bioshock 2 in 2010. Job postings from within Irrational Games for Network Programmers seem to suggest that multiplayer is going to be added or tweaked in the coming months. From a personal perspective, I’m not too excited about more multiplayer, as I’ve had more enjoyment playing these games solo. From a business perspective, though, multiplayer is an easier avenue to additional revenue per user (ARPU). I can see why the decision may have been made.

2. Something else is coming:

Analysts have been hinting that Grand Theft Auto V, which is another release under the Take Two umbrella, could hit stores in October. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said in a note that the Infinite delay “opens the window” for the game to see a release this year. He remarked that we could see some news about Grand Theft Auto V during the Take Two quarterly results presentation on May 22nd, or during E3. During some communication on Twitter, it also appears that Blockbuster put a preliminary date on Grand Theft Auto V of October 26th in the UK, which would likely mean October 23rd here in the US. I think that there’s a bit of coincidence here, and am starting to lean a bit towards the conclusion that we do see Grand Theft Auto V this year. If not, the hole left by Infinite‘s delay will lead to revenue projections being revised downward for the holiday quarter– perhaps considerably so.

3. It’ll be done when it’s done.

It’s entirely possible that Ken Levine and the team at Irrational Games are working beyond deadlines and more time is needed to complete the product. Perhaps there’s some extra fine-tuning needed for certain portions of the game. Maybe a few late-term additions (aside from multiplayer) were added. From what we’ve seen of the game so far, it’s a pretty huge undertaking and projects like these do take some time. While not necessarily good for Take Two’s near-term bottom line, improving on and making sure that Bioshock Infinite is the best game that it can be should pay dividends to consumers when it finally does hit stores… hopefully early next year.

With Infinite being pulled from trade shows for the immediate future, we can look to the next few weeks to see if signs of Grand Theft Auto V arise. If they do, as I suspect, then I think we’ll have our cause identified. It’s a good thing for Infinite if this bears out, however; more time to polish a long-awaited piece of software is a positive. If we hear nothing during E3 (or before), then analyst speculation– and investor fear– over the delay will worsen. In either case, I think that speculation over Infinite becoming another Duke Nukem Forever or Final Fantasy Versus XIII scenario will prove false and we will see it hit stores in 2013.

Consoleation Quickie: NPD Delay and More…

Today is a work day for me, but I have a few things to touch on while I have a little bit of time:

First, NPD numbers for May have been delayed by up to three weeks. I see that a lot of you who have found my work have used NPD in your searches and may be looking for numbers and analysis; I will certainly relay the numbers and break them down shortly after they are released, but the numbers likely won’t be released until the end of this month. While this is disappointing, it’s also a bit of a relief for many members of the gaming press, as E3 is right around the corner and now the NPD numbers won’t interfere with show preparations. For now, all we can do is wait. Don’t worry– E3 will likely not disappoint anyone and should offer plenty of fodder for me to talk about going forward.

Next, although there weren’t any comments on my last entry, it seems that a lot of you read it and some of you mentioned it on Twitter over the weekend. Thank you all for sharing my work and for reading it. Indeed, working in gaming retail does offer a new perspective when talking about sales, trends, and the disconnect between the industry and its consumers. It’s one thing to just write about these trends from my personal experience and point of view. Video games and I have been intertwined for decades and I draw on a mix of observations, history, personal feelings, and other things when I sit in front of my computer and begin writing… but seeing consumers every day and noting their own trends, reactions, and buying habits adds strength to my work and fuels my writing even more. Developers and publishers can’t see what’s going on at the retail level. They just use numbers to gauge their successes and failures. Numbers are only half of the story. They don’t see that consumers are burdened by the amount of games out there and the fact that there’s just not enough money to buy everything that looks good. The industry refuses to acknowledge that game trade-ins actually drive new game sales, especially within a new game’s launch window… which makes that $60+ price tag a little easier to swallow when it’s reduced by store credit earned from trade-ins. I know that I continue to hammer on the same theme regarding this War on Used Games, but that’s exactly what this is becoming. You have the industry on one side and the consumers on the other, and if the industry thinks that eliminating used games or penalizing used consumers means victory, then they’re tragically mistaken and this industry will be doomed to failure as another passing fad, just as it was back in 1983.

In related news, trading in games has allowed me to afford one of this week’s major retail releases. Rock Band: Green Day was a no-brainer for me, in spite the non-stop cries of “Green Day sucks!” and “Music games have passed their prime!” You are free to think that Green Day “sucks”, but I’m perfectly fine with the track list and what Harmonix is bringing to the table with this game. As for the assertion that music games are dead, that may be, but I still enjoy playing them. We’ll see what Rock Band 3 brings to the table and whether Activision can find the magic again with their next Guitar Hero entry. I think that the biggest problem with music game sales had more to do with the high cost of plastic instruments, which many consumers now have already; the rumor of a new keyboard/piano controller for Rock Band 3 could mean a return to higher pricing, but we’ll have to see what SKUs that get released.

That’s about it for today. Look for impressions on Rock Band: Green Day on Wednesday, and hopefully some other entries as well. Thanks for reading and for your continued support and comments.